UK Election Polls

Why were the general election polls wrong?

Now the election votes have been counted, commentators are asking why many of the polls were wrong.

• Some refer to the ‘shy Tory’ who does not want to publicly admit to voting Conservative. This concept emerged in 1992 when the proportion of the vote won by the Conservative Party was significantly higher than indicated by polls.
• Nick Sparrow and John Turner referred to a ‘spiral of silence’ which major pollsters have since tried to correct.
• However Number Cruncher argues that this is a continuing factor.
• British Polling Council has announced a review. Its website also has papers on accuracy and assessments of past elections.
• Other initial responses are on the Ipso-Mori website;
• Fivethirtyeight 
• and YouGov